After Trump 'veto', dealing with Iran is trickier for Israel

Opinion: As US-Iran nuclear talks resume, Israel faces new challenges; with the military option sidelined, Israel must negotiate directly with Washington, secure defense guarantees and prepare for the risks of a potential deal that could strengthen Iran and its proxies

By Michael Oren

“Who leaked the?” That is the question that many people are asking after the New York Times published the story of U.S. President Donald Trump’s veto of a military operation to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Was the source Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hoping to once again prove that he wanted to act but the Americans stopped him? Or was it the isolationist camp in the administration which opposes any further American military involvement in the Middle East? Or perhaps it was Trump himself, eager to demonstrate that he is the president who ends, not starts, wars?

Irrespective, "who leaked" is the wrong question. The real one is: what can Israel do now that an Israeli military option appears definitively off the table, while U.S. and Iranian envoys are negotiating a new nuclear deal?

The talks could be Trump’s way of showing he tried diplomacy before attacking or they could produce a deal not all that different from the one that President Barack Obama concluded with Iran in 2015. Either way, Israel must prepare for the worst.

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The worst, we must say, is a deal that once again enriches Iran and enables it to rebuild Hamas and Hezbollah and restore a pro-Iranian regime in Damascus—all without dismantling a single centrifuge. Such a deal, we must emphasize, will highlight American weakness in the Middle East and strengthen Russia and China. Israel must make clear that such a deal will ensure Iran produces nuclear weapons once the treaty expires.

If, despite Israel’s warnings, a new nuclear deal is concluded, Israel must enter into an intimate dialogue with the White House on ways Israel can nevertheless defend itself. These must include ironclad U.S. security guarantees and assurances that we will always have the means to defend ourselves against Iranian aggression. We must, for the first time, be permitted to purchase strategic bombers and train our crews to fly them. We must reach agreements with the United States regarding the permanent demilitarization of Gaza and southern Lebanon.

The intimate dialogue is all the more important in view of the fact that, in contrast to the past, Israel cannot count on Congress to oppose a new nuclear deal. The Democrats will support any deal that closely resembles Obama’s while the Republicans will refrain from opposing Trump. Israel has no choice but to make our case directly to the Oval Office.

We must begin our negotiations with the administration now, irrespective of who and for what reason they may leak.