How This War Ends

Critics think the war with Iran is like Afghanistan. It’s much more like the Cold War.

By Michael Oren

Everybody knows how wars begin but nobody knows how they end. In the last couple of weeks, the question of how the United States and Israel can conclude their war with Iran has become the most frequently asked by far whenever I appear on TV. My answer is not always one that the anchors like to hear.

Decisively defeating Iran requires an initial application of massive military power followed by a long-term strategy of total containment

Responding to this question requires, first, addressing President Donald Trump’s protean war goals. These range daily from merely destroying what remains of the Iranian navy and nuclear facilities, to also stopping Iran’s production of long-range missiles and its support for terror proxies, and, aspirationally, achieving regime change. There’s “practically nothing left to target” in Iran, Trump recently stated, “a little this and that.” Yet, in other posts, he threatened to strike Iran “20 TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” and that “Death, Fire, and Fury will reign down on them.” To reporters at the White House, he said, “we’re not finished yet,” but speaking to Axios, he indicated that the war will end “soon,” and added, “Any time I want it to end, it will end.”

Neither I nor anyone else can determine which of these objectives are permanent and nonnegotiable and which are temporary and transient. Still, barring an irrepressible popular revolt or a coup within the Iranian regime, neither of which currently seems probable, there is only one way that this war can successfully end. Decisively defeating Iran requires an initial application of massive military power followed by a long-term strategy of total containment. The model must not be the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan, but rather the generational struggle against Soviet Communism—the Cold War that the United States ultimately won.

To envision what victory looks like for the U.S. and its allies, one must first understand how the Iranian regime defines it for itself. Much like its regional proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—winning, for Iran, means simply not losing. These groups don’t care how many of their civilians are killed or leaders eliminated, how many tunnels are destroyed and warships sunk—so long as they can emerge from the rubble when the shooting stops and flash a “V” sign. Unlike their Western adversaries, who think in terms of weeks and months, Iran and its Middle Eastern satellites think in years and even decades—time enough to rebuild all they lost and further bolster their strength. Their millennial project, to revive the medieval Muslim empire in the Middle East and expand its borders globally, can continue.

The means for achieving this victory are identical for Iran and its proxies: put pressure on the U.S. to stop the war. Hamas did so by hiding behind Palestinian civilians so that Israel would kill large numbers of them and fuel international demands for a ceasefire. The ayatollahs know that the world cares far less about Iranian casualties than it does about oil prices and so they attack their energy-producing neighbors. The effect on global sentiment is the same. Economist Paul Krugman recently said that the higher oil prices “could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back” of the U.S. economy and will only get worse if the war continues.

According to its definition of victory, Iran won last summer’s Rising Lion/Midnight Hammer war despite the damage inflicted by the U.S. and Israel. For 12days, the Islamic Republic stood up to the world’s mightiest superpower and its most effective and highly armed ally, and never surrendered. Then, by firing a few performative rockets at Qatar, Iran forced Trump to agree to a ceasefire and compel Israel to comply as well.

By the same criteria, Iran has reason to believe it is winning this war, too. Rather than buckling, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian recently set out conditions for America’s surrender, including the recognition of Iran’s rights (to enrich uranium), the payment of war reparations, and a commitment to never attack Iran again.

Should the war end now, much of the Middle East would once again fall into Tehran’s sphere of influence. Confident that future American presidents will not renew major operations against it, the regime can resume its manufacture of ballistic missiles and reconstruct its nuclear facilities. The Strait of Hormuz will become an exclusively Iranian-controlled channel while terrorist attacks multiply across the Western world. The Gulf States, already afraid to alienate Iran by retaliating for its rocket and drone attacks against them, will rush to pay homage to the Islamic Republic. The people of Iran will be subject to unending and increasingly violent oppression. The international balance of power will also be skewed, with Russia and China reaching dangerous conclusions about America’s staying power.

To avoid that catastrophic scenario, the United States and Israel must deny Iran a victory by any definition. They must continue their intense bombing campaign to destroy Iran’s ability to produce, store, and launch missiles and drones. They must clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian mines, so that oil freighters can be safely escorted through its waters. Once defanged, Iran can be sealed by a hermetic naval blockade that will prevent the export of a single drop of oil and the entry of all but essential foodstuffs and medicines. Every effort should be made to ease the suffering of the civilian population while facilitating their ability to resist—and perhaps overthrow—the regime. It may take several years, but the Islamic Republic will fall. The Soviet Union eventually collapsed because outside pressure forced it to collapse in on itself. The same can be true of Iran.

None of this will require a single boot on the ground, nor certainly a prolonged military occupation. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran is a long-established nation that America need not intervene in to rebuild. But like the Soviet Bloc, Iran represents an idea that must be defeated. And once that is accomplished, energy supplies can be safeguarded and Russia and China deterred. The U.S. can broker previously unthinkable peace treaties in the Middle East and help forge a strategic alliance stretching from the Mediterranean to the Ganges. Iran can rejoin the community of nations and rekindle its people’s hope for freedom. That, in answer to the interviewers’ most frequently asked question, is how the war must end.