The Fallout of Assad's Fall

Along with historic opportunities, the Syrian situation poses grave threats

By Michael Oren

The IDF has acted swiftly and effectively in responding to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. It has bombed Assad’s chemical arsenal, destroyed his armored and missile forces, and sunk his navy. Israeli troops have reoccupied the buffer zone around Quneitra and retaken the Syrian Hebron. These measures greatly reduce the risk of dangerous assets falling into the wrong rebel hands. But there are three major threats for which Israel must prepare today—threats that endanger not only the security of the state but possibly even our existence.

The first threat relates to Jordan. Iran has for a long time worked to destabilize Jordan, smuggling arms and supporting jihadist groups. Now, isolated and weakened, Iran will no doubt escalate this subversion. Israel must quickly fortify our eastern border with high-tech fences and barriers. Cooperation with Jordan’s security forces must be enhanced.

The second threat concerns Lebanon. Weakened by Israel and denied Iranian supplies via Syria, Hezbollah will become a target for the other communities—Druze, Christian, and Sunni—it has long opposed. The result could be another civil war that could once again threaten our north. Israel must watch the situation carefully, strengthen our northern defenses, and consider the possibility of maintaining a security zone south of the Litani.

Lastly and most dangerously, a humiliated and vulnerable Iran may decide to break out and produce a nuclear weapon. It certainly has enough enriched uranium, a ballistic delivery system, and perhaps even a workable warhead. The process of making a bomb could be completed before Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Again, Israel must watch this situation very carefully but watching may not be enough. Together with our American allies or, if necessary, alone, Israel must be ready to preempt.

The fall of Assad presents many favorable opportunities but also multiple dangers. To take advantage of this historic moment, Israel must know how to harness the opportunities and know how to deflect the dangers.