Which Way the Hinge Swings

By Michael Oren

The Iran war represented a historic hinge. By toppling the Iranian regime, dismantling its nuclear program, and eliminating its ballistic missile capabilities and support for terror proxies, the war could bring peace to the entire Middle East. Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia, and perhaps even a post-Ayatollah Iran—all could join the Abraham Accords. A restored Pax Americana would extend from the shores of the Mediterranean to the banks of the Ganges.

But if the deal fails to achieve these goals— if it lifts sanctions on Iran and leaves it in de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz—the war could revive and reinforce Iran’s regional hegemony. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis would receive a financial and strategic lifeline, assuring that Gaza and southern Lebanon remain battlefields. No longer trusting in American power, the Gulf states may rush to seek rapprochement with Tehran while the Abraham Accords fade into obsolescence. Iran may retain and expand its intercontinental ballistic arsenals and preserve its ability to become, once again, a nuclear threshold state. The Iranian people could lose all hope of someday gaining their freedom. The stage would be set for the next, and potentially far more devastating, war.

Though the agreement President Trump appears to have struck risks producing the latter, disastrous scenario, the hinge can still turn in either direction. The Iranian regime may yet die of the mortal wounds it sustained in this war, and the Iranian people may once again revolt. But irrespective of which way it swings, the hinge will be swayed less by raw military power than by the combatants’ willingness to use it and their ability to endure economic and political pain. The Islamic Republic, tragically, has so far surpassed the United States in both categories—but history’s hinge can still revolve toward peace.