Between “Can” and “Must” - Israel choices in the face of the U.S.-Iran agreement

By Michael Oren

Last night, in celebration of President Trump’s 80th birthday, tens of thousands of spectators gathered on the South Lawn of the White House to watch live UFC fights. The combination of spectacle and violence, many observers agreed, was nothing short of surreal. At the same time, the president announced the imminent signing of “a landmark moment for American diplomacy ending decades of hostility and bringing stability to the volatile Middle East.” For Israelis, much like the spectacle on the lawn, the declaration was shocking, bizarre, and brutal.

The situation will confront Israeli leaders with an excruciating choice: either abandon the north or risk a major clash with Washington.

Less than four months ago, American forces stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the IDF in the most dramatic display ever of the U.S.-Israel alliance. Our Israeli pilots, soldiers, and commanders worked in the closest possible coordination with their American counterparts in mounting thousands of successful missions. Our leaders, too, appeared to be totally in lockstep in setting the war’s ultimate goals of overthrowing Iran’s jihadist regime, eliminating its nuclear and ballistic capabilities, and ending its support for terror. Netanyahu’s friendship with Trump seemed deep and unbreakable, surpassing that between Yitzhak Rabin and Bill Clinton, perhaps even between Roosevelt and Churchill. The vision of a Middle East freed from the Islamic Republic’s grip, united in prosperity and peace, truly appeared within reach.

Then, rapidly, the situation changed. Iran pummeled neighboring oil-producing countries with ballistic missiles and drones and blockaded the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz. Global oil prices skyrocketed, and a growing majority of Americans, already angered by Trump’s failure to avoid entanglement in endless foreign wars, demanded a ceasefire. The ayatollahs, far more adept at enduring pain, knew they had the upper hand and exploited it to the full, pressuring Trump to stop resisting their missile program and terror network, and to enter into extended talks on the nuclear issues—all in exchange for reopening the Strait. The Iranians further conditioned the agreement on an end to Israel’s efforts to defend the north against Hezbollah attacks, even to withdraw IDF troops from Southern Lebanon. When Israel responded to Hezbollah drone strikes by bombing Beirut, Trump called Netanyahu “f***ing crazy” and demanded that he halt all operations.

The stage is now set for one of the most potentially explosive confrontations ever between U.S. and Israeli leaders. Few, if any, in Israel believe that Trump’s agreement with Iran will end decades of hostility and bring stability to the Middle East. On the contrary, Israelis are justifiably bracing themselves for further upheavals, even war.

The situation will confront Israeli leaders with an excruciating choice: either abandon the north or risk a major clash with Washington. The first option poses a possibly existential threat to the entire state—Hezbollah rockets can easily reach Tel Aviv—while the second could result in a cut-off of vital munitions and even condemnations in the UN. Moreover, the decision will have to be made when, for the first time in our history, we have no recourse—no ability to complain to Congress, to the Democrats, or our friends in Europe. Israel, today, stands virtually alone.

Asked by The Wall Street Journal last night what I thought Netanyahu can do, I responded by saying that the question is not “can” but “must.” The prime minister’s paramount job is to defend the country at virtually any cost, even a backlash from the United States. Like Begin before him in destroying the Iraqi nuclear reactor or Eshkol in initiating the Six-Day War—both in the face of stiff American opposition—Netanyahu must place Israel’s security first.

Ronald Reagan, a pro-Israel president, responded to Israel’s raid on the reactor by delaying the shipment of F-16s to the IDF and joining with Iraq in condemning Israel in the Security Council. So, too, today, Israel can weather Trump’s possible response. But Israel cannot endure the loss of our north and forfeit our fundamental security.

While continuing to strike Hezbollah and navigating our complex relationship with the United States, we must gird ourselves internally to meet the great challenges ahead. We must rigorously bridge our society’s rifts between religious and secular, right and left. We must address the Haredi service issue now, vastly expand support for reservists and inhabitants of the North, and preserve our national will to fight. We must invest massively in public diplomacy and diversify our foreign policy portfolio, strengthening our ties with Asia, Africa, and South America. Unified and steeled, we will once again prevail.