War by Other Means

Wars are usually won on the battlefield, not around the negotiating table. But that is precisely what is likely to happen this week in talks between the US, Israel, and Hamas.

By Michael Oren

Seldom does the outcome of a war depend on a few days of diplomacy. Wars are usually won on the battlefield, not around the negotiating table. But that is precisely what is likely to happen this week in talks between the United States, Israel, and Hamas. Contrary to von Clausewitz’s dictum, “War is a continuation of politics by other means,” in Gaza it will be “Diplomacy is war by other means.”

The Trump 20-point peace plan, indeed, secured all of Israel’s goals of freeing the hostages and ending Hamas rule in Gaza. It provided for a ceasefire after the release of the hostages, not before. It gave Hamas a clear choice between surrender and death. Accordingly, Israel accepted the plan unconditionally and expected Trump to tell Hamas “take it or leave it.”

Hamas, as anticipated, said “yes, but” to the plan. The terrorists want to negotiate an arrangement in which, in return for freeing the hostages, they can remain in Gaza and keep their guns. Achieving those goals means, in essence, Hamas will win the war.

In response, the president ordered the IDF to halt its Gaza City offensive and instructed his diplomatic team to enter into talks—albeit indirectly, through Qatar—with Hamas.

Rather than strengthening the twenty points, these negotiations could result in watering them down. Hamas could conclude that Trump wants the Nobel Prize and will make serious concessions to secure it. But Trump, the master dealmaker, may be counting on Hamas to overplay its hand and provide him—and Israel—the justification for delivering it the coup de grâce.

In his recent Truth Social post, Trump warned Hamas not to drag its feet. “I will not tolerate delay,” he wrote, “or any outcome where Gaza poses a threat again.” By holding fast to that position, the president can ensure that Israel, and not Hamas, will win the war.

Israel’s goal, then, is to uphold the original Trump plan and not allow Hamas to whittle it down. We must stress the need to obtain the release of all the hostages unconditionally, without allowing Hamas to keep its guns or to take part in Gaza’s post-war government. We must stress the need to maintain military pressure on Hamas and, if needed, to complete the conquest of Gaza City.

The outcome of the war in Gaza will be determined not by our soldiers on the battlefield but by our leaders in the negotiating room. They, as fiercely as our troops, must fight to win.